Millions more people will die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years unless steps are taken to counter this growing health threat, a new study warns.

The number of deaths linked to antibiotic-resistant bacteria is projected to grow to 8.2 million per year by 2050, up 75% from current estimates of 4.7 million a year, researchers reported Sept. 16 in The Lancet journal.

“By 2050, resistant infections could be involved in some 8 million deaths each year, either as the direct cause of death or as a contributing factor,” said researcher Dr. Stein Emil Vollset of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

“To prevent this from becoming a deadly reality, we urgently need new strategies to decrease the risk of severe infections through vaccines, new drugs, improved healthcare, better access to existing antibiotics and guidance on how to use them most effectively,” Vollset added in a journal news release.

Overall, more than 39 million people could die directly from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, researchers concluded. Another 169 million deaths would be associated with these superbugs.

“These findings highlight that antimicrobial resistance has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,” said researcher Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, team leader of antimicrobial resistance research at the Institute of Health Metrics with the University of Washington.

“Understanding how trends in AMR [antimicrobial resistance} deaths have changed over time, and how they are likely to shift in future, is vital to make informed decisions to help save lives,” Naghavi added.

For the study, researchers tracked deaths in 204 countries and territories related to 22 germs and 11 infectious syndromes like meningitis, sepsis and other severe infections.

The team used computer modeling to estimate trends in deaths directly and indirectly related to antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

These resistant germs could play a direct role in an estimated 1.9 million deaths in 2050, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 2022, researchers said.

Looking back, researchers estimated that deaths directly caused by these germs declined by more than 50% in children 5 or younger between 1990 and 2021.

At the same time, deaths among seniors 70 and older increased by more than 80%, due to older people’s greater vulnerability to infection, researchers said.

Deaths among children are projected to continue declining in the future, but infection deaths among people aged 70 and older could increase 146% by 2050, estimates show.

“The threat to older people from AMR will only increase as populations age. Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR,” said researcher Dr. Kevin Ikuta, an assistant clinical professor of medicine with UCLA.

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more on antimicrobial resistance.

SOURCE: The Lancet, news release, Sept. 16, 2024

Source: HealthDay

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